Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#38
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#24
Pace63.3#271
Improvement-3.3#286

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#20
Improvement+0.7#131

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#125
Improvement-4.0#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 17.6% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round49.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen12.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight5.0% n/a n/a
Final Four1.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.4% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2011 89   Northern Iowa W 57-41 78%     1 - 0 +18.1 -10.7 +29.8
  Nov 23, 2011 79   @ Denver L 58-70 51%     1 - 1 -2.2 -2.4 -1.8
  Nov 28, 2011 123   Weber St. W 87-70 84%     2 - 1 +16.7 +9.6 +6.9
  Dec 03, 2011 172   @ Cal Poly W 59-54 75%     3 - 1 +8.1 -4.9 +13.7
  Dec 13, 2011 333   Jackson St. W 77-53 99%     4 - 1 +6.2 -2.1 +8.3
  Dec 15, 2011 303   N.C. A&T W 84-45 97%     5 - 1 +26.3 +7.7 +19.0
  Dec 17, 2011 257   Bethune-Cookman W 77-52 95%     6 - 1 +15.9 +3.6 +14.4
  Dec 19, 2011 314   Kennesaw St. W 74-51 98%     7 - 1 +8.2 +0.8 +10.4
  Dec 20, 2011 213   Eastern Washington W 77-61 93%     8 - 1 +9.9 +5.6 +5.3
  Dec 22, 2011 11   Baylor L 59-72 33%     8 - 2 +1.8 -4.0 +4.8
  Dec 23, 2011 97   Missouri St. W 77-61 69%     9 - 2 +21.0 +12.6 +9.4
  Dec 29, 2011 45   BYU W 98-82 68%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +21.4 +19.7 +0.0
  Dec 31, 2011 287   @ Pepperdine W 74-45 90%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +25.0 +10.1 +18.3
  Jan 05, 2012 224   @ San Diego W 78-72 83%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +6.1 +5.8 +0.4
  Jan 09, 2012 137   San Francisco W 87-72 85%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +13.9 +13.9 +0.6
  Jan 12, 2012 29   Gonzaga W 83-62 59%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +28.7 +18.4 +11.5
  Jan 14, 2012 286   Portland W 69-61 96%     15 - 2 6 - 0 -2.7 -5.0 +2.8
  Jan 19, 2012 287   Pepperdine W 61-47 96%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +3.2 -1.6 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2012 289   @ Santa Clara W 93-77 90%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +11.8 +7.9 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2012 149   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-64 70%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +11.7 +8.6 +3.8
  Jan 28, 2012 45   @ BYU W 80-66 42%     19 - 2 10 - 0 +26.2 +12.8 +13.0
  Feb 02, 2012 224   San Diego W 84-73 93%     20 - 2 11 - 0 +4.3 +17.4 -11.8
  Feb 09, 2012 29   @ Gonzaga L 59-73 34%     20 - 3 11 - 1 +0.5 -0.3 -0.7
  Feb 11, 2012 289   Santa Clara W 82-67 96%     21 - 3 12 - 1 +4.0 +6.1 -0.9
  Feb 15, 2012 149   Loyola Marymount L 60-75 87%     21 - 4 12 - 2 -17.1 -6.5 -12.0
  Feb 18, 2012 42   @ Murray St. L 51-65 40%     21 - 5 -1.3 -3.8 -0.6
  Feb 23, 2012 286   @ Portland W 70-43 90%     22 - 5 13 - 2 +23.1 +1.2 +24.5
  Feb 25, 2012 137   @ San Francisco W 67-60 67%     23 - 5 14 - 2 +12.7 +2.6 +11.1
  Mar 03, 2012 137   San Francisco W 83-78 77%     24 - 5 +7.3 +16.2 -8.5
  Mar 05, 2012 29   Gonzaga W 78-74 OT 46%     25 - 5 +15.1 +7.9 +7.0
Projected Record 25.0 - 5.0 14.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 3.2 14.4 25.0 30.9 21.9 4.2 0.4 0.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 3.2 14.4 25.0 30.9 21.9 4.2 0.4 0.0